The Diffusion of Democracy

A research project designed to answer two general theoretical questions:

1. Does democracy "spread" from one country to another through diffusion?

2. Does international trade help to diffuse democracy?

And, in the process, shed light on three more specific questions

3. Can American foreign policy encourage democratization?

4. Can we determine if such a diffusionary process operates?

5. Can students learn to answer such questions "by doing"?

International Relations 74

American Foreign Policy

One of the central organizing themes of IR 74 is that foreign policy represents the expression of a nation's values. Prominent among the values-rooted goals championed by recent American foreign policy is the promotion of democracy.

Trade and aid policies have frequently been utilized as tools to encourage democratization. Trade with China, for example, has been justified as a means to penetrate an otherwise closed society, bringing the diffusion of democratic ideas. Just as often, however, trade with non-democratic countries has been restricted out of fear that trade would help achieve prosperity that would allow dictators to resist political change. Cuba and Iraq are prominent recent examples.

In truth, American policy-makers do not know when or if trade promotes democracy. Our project is designed to use statistical methods to test alternative theories about this linkage.

Social Science Methods

Policy, Theory and Evidence

Policy cannot be effective in achieving goals unless the theory on which it rests is accurate. Social scientists have developed statistical techniques to test theoretical questions such as, "Does trade promote democracy?" However, evaluating such hypotheses requires skills and training which are rare among students (or policymakers!).

Students resist learning any technique without immediate application, especially methods which are difficult and boring to learn, demand long programs of study to master, and require considerable experience to apply appropriately. Social science research methods combine the worst features of learning a foreign language and doing mathematics.

In sports, one first learns basic techniques through doing. Our project is a bold experiment to introduce students to the experience of systematic social science before mastering its principles.

The Sidebar Seminar

Hewlett Foundation Grant for Undergraduate Research

American universities are charged with three important missions -- teaching, research, and service. While ideally these missions reinforce one another, they are often pursued in isolation. Undergraduates rarely hear of the research activities of their professors, in part because advanced research techniques involve a language they do not speak. Lehigh University has been awarded a Hewlett Foundation grant to incorporate research experience directly into the undergraduate curriculum.

The primary device is to be the "sidebar seminar", which provides a research apprenticeship for students in lower division courses. By participating on a research team directed by a faculty member, students will experience first-hand the application of research methods before they are required to learn to perform the techniques themselves.

International Relations 96

The Diffusion of Democracy

a 1 credit "sidebar seminar"

on Democracy, Trade, and American Foreign Policy

Lehigh University Fall, 1997

Dept. of International Relations "Lab" for IR 74,

Prof. Bruce E. Moon American Foreign Policy

This fall, several Lehigh courses will experiment with ways to bring faculty research interests into the undergraduate classroom. One of those experiments is open to students in IR 74 who wish to learn about social scientific methods of research. They are invited to enroll in a 1-unit "side-bar seminar" which will examine whether trade can play a role in furthering the process of democratization.

For several decades now, American policy has operated under the assumption that democracy was diffused from one nation to another and that the diffusionary process could be accelerated by encouraging economic contacts, especially trade. As is frequently the case, policy-making can be no better than the theory which underlies it -- and little is known about the process of democratization and the determinants of its success. It is not at all clear that trade is empirically related to democracy, despite the strategies adopted by policy-makers, which assume a strong and exploitable link.

The "side-bar seminar", the Diffusion of Democracy, is a team-oriented research project designed to examine one facet of the trade - democracy linkage. We will attempt to derive an empirical model of the relationship between trade and democracy by reading the relevant theoretical literature, placing it within a framework that views democratization as a process influenced by external factors through diffusion, building a data set capable of testing whether the hypotheses implied by the theory are supported by statistical evidence, and analyzing the results.

Under faculty supervision, students will participate directly in the research project, giving them a first-hand view of what quantitative social science research is all about. First, we must survey the literature on democratization in general and the literature on trade - democracy effects in particular. Second, we must build a research design organized around the idea that democratization is a diffusionary process. That requires us to create a mental model of diffusion and to flesh it out with the data which would establish an operational criterion for determining whether diffusion has taken place. Then the hunt is on for those instruments which can penetrate the permeable barriers between nations and become the agents for the diffusion of democracy.

Schedule of research activities

-- Assignment: Read both Starr articles.

+ Lecture, The Problem of Inference

The use of theory to move from the (unknowable) policy question we wish to answer (e.g., "Will continuing trade with China make it more or less likely that democracy will emerge?") to a general or theoretical question which, if properly answered, would bear upon it. Various possible approaches to the inference problem, emphasizing the testable empirical proposition and statistical tests of it. An example: Starr's theory of diffusion. Theory and hypotheses.

+Lecture, Defining the Problem.

The necessity of clear definition. Operational definition and measurement of democracy. The use of coding and data sets. What does it mean to "become more democratic "?

Assignment: read Gurr and view the data set.

Team assignment: Write a "data-heavy" (lots of tables and graphs) summary of the cases to be explained for file and class use. How many changes? When? Where? What direction?

+Lecture, Research as a Social Process: The Role of Literature and Techniques for Searching it

The generalized search: theories of the causes of democracy.

Subsequent team assignment: Create a theoretical bibliography (from Starr and original search) for file and class use.

The specialized search: hypotheses on the trade - democracy linkage. Citation analysis.

Subsequent team assignment: Create a "hypothetical/empirical" bibliography (from Starr and citation analysis) for file and class use.

-- Read the Literature and write reports.

General theories of democratization.

Specific hypotheses of democratization causes.

Specific hypotheses of trade-democracy relationship.

+Present the data matrix. Brainstorm on research design.

+Code adjacency.

+Do analysis

+Write up results