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News-media analysts and Nigerian journalists spoke with measured optimism today that the death of Gen. Sani Abacha would bring modest improvements for the country's beleaguered press. They speculated that Nigeria's new military leader might release imprisoned journalists and democracy advocates as an early gesture of good will.
These observers cautioned, however, that the Nigerian military, which has ruled Africa's most populous country for 28 of the 38 years since independence in 1960, is traditionally impatient with criticism and typically resists change. Consequently, they said, conditions facing the press are not likely to change dramatically in Nigeria, where more journalists are jailed than in any other country in Africa.
Meanwhile today, newspapers in Africa expressed skepticism about prospects of an early return to democratic rule in Nigeria. And one daily in southern Africa described Abacha's ruthless dictatorship as emblematic of the continent's broader leadership woes.
A former Nigerian journalist and close observer of the country's media scene, Tunji Lardner, said that Abacha's successor, Gen. Abdulsalam Abubakar, may well release imprisoned journalists and other democracy advocates "as a sop, to assuage domestic sentiment." But Lardner also said he expected no sustained "outreach to journalists."
"The rift between the military and the media is too large," Lardner said.
In a brief e-mail message sent today from Nigeria, Akin Akingbulu, executive director of the Lagos-based International Journalism Center, said speculation was that Abubakar "will free many political prisoners and detainees. Let's keep praying."
Under Abacha, journalists in Nigeria "suffered inordinately," Lardner said. "They have been running scared," often fleeing into exile to avoid arrest and imprisonment. "We're hoping that this will change because the king is dead, so to speak," he said.
Abacha's five-year rule exacerbated the deep and historic divisions -- those of ethnicity, politics, religion, and economics -- that have long characterized Nigeria, Lardner said. He emphasized that the plight of journalists and democracy advocates in the country must be considered within those broad contexts. Nigeria is an oil-rich country twice the size of California, where the population of 115 million people is divided among more than 200 ethnic groups speaking as many indigenous languages.
The New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists, which ranked Abacha as the world's leading enemy of the press, says 21 journalists are in prison in Nigeria. Among them are prominent editors such as Babafemi Ojudu, managing editor of The News and Tempo in Lagos, and Christiana Anyanwu , publisher and editor in chief of the Sunday Magazine, also in Lagos.
About the implications of Abacha's death, Kakuna Kerina of the Committee to Project Journalists said that "the coming weeks will be very interesting indeed and could go either way -- disastrous, or we might see major improvements."
Njonjo Mue, director of the Southern Africa regional office of Article 19, the London-based anti-censorship organization, said Abacha's death may represent "a concrete step towards the release of political prisoners and jailed journalists."
Article 19, which derives its name from the free expression section of the International Declaration of Human Rights, is one of several rights groups that planned to organize marches in South Africa this month to mark the fourth anniversary of Abacha's imprisonment of Moshood Abiola, presumed winner of Nigeria's ill-fated presidential elections in June 1993. Gen. Ibrahim Babagandida, Abacha's immediate predecessor, annulled the election results, setting the stage for five years of extraordinarily repressive rule. Abacha took power in November 1993 and Abiola was imprisoned on treason charges in 1994 after he attempted to claim the presidency.
Abacha's death does not mean that Nigeria's military leaders will be ready or inclined to accede to demands of pro-democracy opposition groups, observers said. After all, they noted, Abubakar and his colleagues in uniform are not democrats. As the Mail & Guardian of Johannesburg noted in its electronic edition today, Abubakar "made no mention of the presidential elections" that had been set for Aug. 1 -- elections in which Abacha had positioned himself as the sole legal candidate.
The newspaper also said: "The swift appointment [of Abubakar] ended any hope that the military might yield power or open the opportunity for a return to democracy, as many in [Nigeria] had hoped."
Notre Voie, the leading opposition daily newspaper in Ivory Coast (Cote d'Ivoire) in West Africa, said in its online edition today that most people in Nigeria and in Africa who "are shedding tears over Abacha's death are crying for joy." The newspaper also said that the prospect of Abacha's remaining in power as the elected president "surely would have meant that scores of Nigerians would have been sent to prison or would have joined [Ken] Saro-Wiwa and others in the great beyond."
Saro-Wiwa, a playwright and environmental activist, was among nine opposition figures whom the regime executed by hanging in November 1995, stirring sustained international condemnation.
One outspoken daily newspaper, the Post of Zambia, said in its electronic edition that Abacha's death underscored "the whole crisis of leadership in Africa. Africans simply pay too little attention to the caliber of those who must lead them. They rarely take the trouble to know the abilities, status, or intellect of those who are intent on being their leaders. The result is that the continent is led by a collection of misfits -- each struggling to hold the line but normally to no avail. ... When Africa's most populous and also one of the most educated populations are caught in situations like this, can there be any hope for the rest of the continent? The answer is a categorical no -- unless there is a change in the way Africans perceive leadership."
Although the Nigerian military moved swiftly to appoint Abubakar, the prospect of a power struggle was not to be dimissed, observers said today. "The question is, 'What next?'" said Lardner. "After Abacha, will it be the deluge?"
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