Integrated Assessment

 

Coupling ecological models to emissions and climate models within an integrated modeling framework is essential to determining the interactions between humans and their physical environment.   My current model development for ozone is nested within the context of the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) to directly explore the effect of different emissions scenarios on the ecosystem response and the economic consequences of policy decisions (Felzer et al., 2005, 2007; Reilly et al., 2007).  The effect of multiple disturbances on carbon sequestration and other greenhouse gas emissions such as methane and nitrous oxide are then able to feed back on the climate system through changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases.  We have included the ozone effect on ecosystems within the IGSM to determine how pollution caps will affect climate through changes in greenhouse gas levels (Prinn et al., 2005).

 

 

References

 

Felzer, B. S., Reilly, J. Melillo, J., Kicklighter, D. W., Sarofim, M., Wang, C., Prinn, R. G., and Q. Zhuang. (2005). “Future effects of ozone on carbon sequestration and climate change policy using a global biochemistry model”, Climatic Change, 73 (3): 345-373.

 

Felzer, B. S., Cronin, T., Reilly, J. M., Melillo, J. M. and Wang, X. 2007. Impacts of ozone on trees and crops. Comptes rendus Geosience. 339/11-12: 784-798 DOI: 10.1016/j.crte.2007.08.008.

 

Prinn, R., Reilly, J. M., Sarofim, M., Wang, C. and Felzer, B. 2007. Effects of air pollution control on climate: results from an integrated assessment model. In Human-induced Climate Change: An Interdisciplinary Assessment, Ed. By Schlesinger, M., Kheshgi, H., Smith, J., de la Chesnay, F., Reilly, J., Wilson, T., and Kolstad, C. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, UK. Ch. 8, pp 93-102.

 

Reilly, J., Paltsev, S., Felzer, B., Wang, X., Kicklighter, D. Melillo, J., Prinn, R., Sarofim, M., Sokolov, A., and Wang, C. 2007. Global economic effects of changes in crops, pasture, and forests due to changing climate, carbon dioxide, and ozone. Energy Policy, 35: 5370-5383.